Is Microsoft really going to cut off security updates for your 'unsupported' Windows 11 PC?

Microsoft's strict compatibility requirements for Windows 11 mean that a significant number of PC owners -- hundreds of millions, probably -- are prevented from upgrading their Windows 10 PCs to the newer operating system using normal techniques. 

Meanwhile, the company has published documentation for how to bypass those compatibility checks and upgrade anyway, while warning that following those instructions means you won't be entitled to receive updates in the future.

Also: Yes, you can upgrade that old PC to Windows 11, even if Microsoft says no. These readers proved it

Beginning in mid-2024, that warning now appears as a frightening dialog box during Windows Setup on any PC where you've edited the registry to perform an upgrade while bypassing the CPU and TPM compatibility checks. To emphasize, this is a technique that Microsoft has documented as an official workaround.

I've heard from a half-dozen readers who were alarmed and uncertain whether they should proceed after they saw this warning. Here's what it looks like:

This warning raises the question: If you upgrade your old, "incompatible" PC to Windows 11, are you really in danger of getting cut off from monthly security updates some day?

Allow me to answer that question with another question: Have you ever heard of FUD? The acronym, short for "fear, uncertainty, and doubt", has been around a long time, but it was popularized in the 1970s as a way of describing how the giant IBM Corporation discouraged its customers from even considering competing products.

FUD is a classic marketing technique used when your customer is contemplating a switch to a competing product and there's no good technical argument to make against that choice. It's odd, though, to see an example like this, in which the giant Microsoft Corporation is using FUD to discourage customers from installing one of its own products. 

Also: What is a TPM, and why does Windows 11 require one?

The exact language in that warning is interesting:

Installing Windows 11 on this PC is not recommended and may result in compatibility issues. If you proceed with installing Windows 11, your PC will no longer be supported and won't be entitled to receive updates. Damages to your PC due to lack of compatibility aren't covered under the manufacturer warranty. [emphasis added]

This warning is, of course, the business school version of, "Gee, nice PC you got there. Be a shame if something happened to it." But it really doesn't say that Microsoft is going to cut off your access to updates; it simply says your PC is no longer supported and you're no longer "entitled" to those updates. An entitlement is a legal term found in license agreements; using that word here is a tell on Microsoft's part, disclaiming legal responsibility without actually saying what it will do.

Also: Still have a Windows 10 PC? You have 5 options before support ends next year

In fact, it would require an awful lot of work on Microsoft's part to configure its update servers to reject requests from PCs based on such detailed configuration information. Doing so would almost certainly snag customers with perfectly valid installations, and it would needlessly anger customers who were otherwise having a perfectly good experience with Windows 11. 

Not to mention that all of those Windows PCs are a source of revenue for Microsoft from other sources, including Microsoft 365 subscriptions, casual games, and ads served through the Microsoft Edge browser. Even a one-year Microsoft 365 subscription puts more money in Microsoft's coffers than a Windows license does. 

Instead, that language is a way of convincing timid customers to retire those old PCs in favor of shiny new ones, thereby choosing the option that puts fresh revenue in the pockets of Microsoft's OEM partners.

As for the "supported PC" part of that warning, well... Microsoft doesn't directly support Windows PCs anyway. The OEMs that build and sell computers are the companies that have that responsibility. The computers that are being upgraded using this workaround are, by definition, more than five years old and are no longer covered by any warranty. So don't be intimidated by what is, in fact, pretty much an empty threat.

Also: This hidden Windows 11 setting lets you kill unresponsive apps right from the taskbar

This sort of confusion isn't without precedent. Back in the days before Windows 10 launched, Windows skeptics were convinced that Microsoft was going to pull the rug out from updates based on some confusing legal language about the "supported lifetime of the device". For a few months in the run-up to the launch of Windows 10, there was a flurry of coverage breathlessly claiming that Microsoft was going to start charging Windows 10 customers for updates within two years.

That turned out to be a false alarm, for all the same reasons I outlined in this case.

It's possible, of course, that some future Windows update will cause performance and reliability issues on older PCs, but the idea that Microsoft will punish its customers for following a documented (albeit unsupported) upgrade deployment procedure is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.