Buying an iPhone 16? Here's which models are most in demand - and how long you'll have to wait

Overall preorder demand for the iPhone 16 has taken a tumble compared to the iPhone 15. Looking at this past weekend's results for the iPhone 16 lineup, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo found that preorder sales rang in at around 37 million units. That's about 12.7% lower than the first-weekend preorder sales for the iPhone 15 series in 2023.

Also: I maxed out my iPhone 16 Pro Max preorder. Here's how much it cost me

Though the drop may sound severe, the results are actually a mixed bag, with the two Pro models responsible for the overall decline.

Based on Kuo's analysis of a supply chain survey and the latest data from Apple's websites, preorder sales fell by 16% for the iPhone 16 Pro Max and 27% for the iPhone 16 Pro compared with last year. On the brighter side for Apple, sales for the iPhone 16 Plus jumped by a hefty 48% for the iPhone 16 Plus and 10% for the iPhone 16.

Unveiled at Apple's "Glowtime" event a week ago, the iPhone 16 lineup kicked off for preorder sales at 8 am ET on Friday. This means that Kuo's numbers are based on the initial three-day weekend as customers preordered one of the four new models.

Also: I demoed Apple's standard iPhone 16 and didn't envy the Pro models at all

The estimated delivery times also show different numbers for the Pro and non-Pro iPhone 16 units.

Customers who preorder an iPhone 16 Pro Max now will have to wait three to four weeks for their phone to arrive, while those who snag an iPhone 16 Pro will have to wait one to two weeks. Looking at the same period last year, people who preordered an iPhone 15 Pro Max at this point had to wait seven to eight weeks, while those who grabbed an iPhone 15 Pro had to wait three to four weeks.

Kuo paints a different picture for the other two models. People who preorder an iPhone 16 Plus now have to wait two to three weeks, while those who buy an iPhone 16 have to wait one to two weeks. At the same period last year, preorder buyers of the iPhone 15 Plus had to wait less than one week, while those who picked up an iPhone 15 has to wait one to two weeks.

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Why the less-than-stellar demand for the two iPhone 16 Pro models? Kuo put the onus on two factors.

First, Apple has been touting its AI-based Apple Intelligence tech as a key selling point. But, this feature won't be available until next month with the release of iOS 18.1. Why should people buy a new phone now when they can wait until this major perk sees the light of day?

Second, Kuo cited intense competition in the Chinese market as another factor. Here, Apple has to face off against local players such as Huawei, OPPO, and Vivo, all of whom enjoy a home-court advantage. Plus, Chinese vendors continue to innovate as a means to lure in customers. Huawei, for example, just released a tri-fold phone. Dubbed the Mate XT, the new device sports a double-hinged design that can shrink the OLED screen to 6.4 inches.

But we're still in the very early phases of the iPhone 16 launch, which means Apple has ample time to try to boost sales. Kuo pointed to the upcoming release of Apple Intelligence and peak holiday season promotions as two factors that can entice people to buy. And there may be more tricks up Apple's sleeve next year.

Also: Every iPhone 16 model compared: Which new iPhone should you buy?

"Suppose Apple Intelligence releases in 4Q24 and peak season promotions have a limited effect on iPhone 16 shipments," Kuo said. "In that case, I believe that Apple will implement more aggressive iPhone product strategies in 2025 to stimulate market demand."

The iPhone 16 officially launches on Friday, September 20, and consumers can find it in Apple Stores, on the Apple website, and at both physical and online retailers globally.